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« Logical Fallacies Part 1 | Main | Frivolous Intelligent Design lawsuits »


Jon Fleming

Er, Dembski's "universal probability bound" is one in 10^150, rather larger than your piddling 1 in 10^19 (approximately). Of course it's easy enough to demonstrate events with lower probabilities than Dembski's UPB, but picking the winners of all games in March Madness isn't one of 'em.


Well of course the number of molecules of gas in a typical room is on the order of 10^24 or 10^25, so the possible configurations of molucules run to the tune of 10^(1000000000000000000000), so the odds of picking the current configuration of atoms in this office is 1 in 10^(1000000000000000000000). The point is that some configuration is picked, we don't know what the sample size is necessary to generate life on Earth, so 10^150 is just a possible way to look at the probability of what we see (and it's a pretty flawed chain of reasoning anyhow see:
evolutionary processes are selected, which makes them less random than gas molecules or basketball games. :)

So, evolution can pick a winner, even if it is a touch difficult to predict the winner.

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